1/4/2024 0 Comments 3 minutes to midnight clock![]() I should probably explain that last line here - I’m actually quite a religious person myself, and have a very positive opinion of many of the strains of Islam, but none of that negates the fact that there is a growing hardline minority pushing an austere and expansionary form of the religion. What awaits us over the next few decades other than further climate collapse, institutional distrust, social fraying, mass migrations, and resource competition? Continued soil erosion and nutrient depletion problems, further crop yield declines, increasing water scarcity, and a major world religion that seems to be approaching some sort of period of major influx and change similar to the one that hit Christianity numerous centuries ago and triggered the long series of gruesome wars that followed from the Reformation. ![]() It should be stated bluntly here that if such a trend continues, it’s very likely to lead directly to large-scale warfare on a scale not seen anytime in the last century in many parts of the world (both as a means of releasing pressure, providing scapegoats and distractions, and securing new resource bases). Unsurprisingly, this reality seems to feed into the “loss of trust in political institutions” mentioned above by the chair of the BAS Board of Sponsors. Some of those coming from James Hansen in recent times, for instance, have been shown to be fairly accurate.Īll of that said, my take on the situation based on many, many years of involvement with those working in politics and business around the world is that pretty much everyone in any position of power is aware of the situation as regards the climate, and is either: unwilling to change owing to loss of profit (most oil firms) figures it’s too late to do anything effective (probably many governments) or thinks that the situation can be turned to its advantage (many very likely delusional governments). Pretty much the only predictions that have been proven true have been the most dire ones issued. ![]() the reality is that almost all of the predictions made by climate researchers over the last few decades have been vast underestimates of what has by now occurred. While so-called climate deniers (whether true skeptics or the paid and unconvinced trollish sort) often claim that there were predictions a decade or so ago by researchers that the world’s coastlines would be inundated by now that crop yields would have collapsed by now etc. Those “real problems” include the growing intensity of climate warming and weirding - which has begun to pick up pace in recent years, seemingly owing to the activation of various positive feedback loops, and is now threatening to snowball to a civilization-destroying scale over only just the next few decades. This danger looms at a time when there’s been a loss of trust in political institutions, in the media, in science, and in facts themselves, all of which exacerbate the difficulty in dealing with the real problems the world faces, and which threaten to undermine the ability of governments to effectively deal with these problems.” Collectively, they represent a potent and growing threat to the maintenance of the modern world.Īs explained by the chair of the BAS Board of Sponsors (and also director of the Origins Project at Arizona State University), Lawrence Krauss: “The danger of nuclear conflagration is not the only reason the clock has been moved forward, as my colleagues have described. It’s important to realize, though, that it’s really the combination of these factors that led to the change. The factors for the unnerving position this time around are a bit different - a weak response to date regarding climate change mitigation a breakdown of trust in institutions of various kinds poor progress with regard to nuclear disarmament and growing posturing with regard to the potential use of nuclear weapons are the primary reasons for the change. The Doomsday Clock has only ever been positioned at two minutes to midnight once before - back in 1953 when hydrogen bomb testing by both the USSR and the US was at its heyday. The so-called Doomsday Clock, which was created and is maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as a way of communicating to the public the dangers facing the world, is now at just two minutes to midnight - following an update that moved the clock hands forward 30 seconds.
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